Hey, I've noticed that you were betting against the market everywhere and so I went to your substack to see what you had to say and I wasn't disappointed! This is very interesting :) Also, it seems as though it's working pretty well so far!
I'm impressed you noticed! My portfolio is indeed up since I started, but I think that is despite the strategy rather than because of it - almost all my gains have come from a couple of lucky, well-timed out-of-strategy bets. Mostly my emails are a long stream of 'your bet was $10. Your payout is $0'. But that is of course part of the strategy; it's expecting to bleed.
I'm making some small tweaks and trying out various alternatives as I go, and once I either get lucky and retire or go broke I'll write up the results.
Oh okay, that's unfortunate. Maybe this strat might work better using limit orders? That way, there is less risk of bleeding out, and you can make much more bets at a time. Oh and possibly, if the current price is at 60%, buy both a NO limit order at 75% and a YES limit order at 25%, that way wherever it ends up going, you'll be buying the underdog position? I don't really know if that'd work, but it's worth investigating.
Also, I'm curious whether the similar strategy of "buying NO whenever someone buys a lot of YES, and vice versa" might work well, because there are often beginners who throw M$1000 on a question and it's often positive EV to bet against them. This is basically the way I've been using to make lots of money in the past few weeks with great success, I sort by Last updated and often bet against the last bet if it was a big one, or with it if it's clearly new info that someone found. In fact, something like "Go to last updated, look whether the bet was done by someone with high total profits, bet with them if so and against them if not" might work, and it doesn't look too hard to automatize. I'm doing it mostly by hand right now.
In any case, I'm glad you'll write up the results, that'll for sure be interesting!
Good ideas, thank you. Manifold is adding features faster than I can play with them - limit orders were added while I was researching this post - but when I'm back from holiday next week I look forward to trying them out.
Hey, I've noticed that you were betting against the market everywhere and so I went to your substack to see what you had to say and I wasn't disappointed! This is very interesting :) Also, it seems as though it's working pretty well so far!
I'm impressed you noticed! My portfolio is indeed up since I started, but I think that is despite the strategy rather than because of it - almost all my gains have come from a couple of lucky, well-timed out-of-strategy bets. Mostly my emails are a long stream of 'your bet was $10. Your payout is $0'. But that is of course part of the strategy; it's expecting to bleed.
I'm making some small tweaks and trying out various alternatives as I go, and once I either get lucky and retire or go broke I'll write up the results.
Oh okay, that's unfortunate. Maybe this strat might work better using limit orders? That way, there is less risk of bleeding out, and you can make much more bets at a time. Oh and possibly, if the current price is at 60%, buy both a NO limit order at 75% and a YES limit order at 25%, that way wherever it ends up going, you'll be buying the underdog position? I don't really know if that'd work, but it's worth investigating.
Also, I'm curious whether the similar strategy of "buying NO whenever someone buys a lot of YES, and vice versa" might work well, because there are often beginners who throw M$1000 on a question and it's often positive EV to bet against them. This is basically the way I've been using to make lots of money in the past few weeks with great success, I sort by Last updated and often bet against the last bet if it was a big one, or with it if it's clearly new info that someone found. In fact, something like "Go to last updated, look whether the bet was done by someone with high total profits, bet with them if so and against them if not" might work, and it doesn't look too hard to automatize. I'm doing it mostly by hand right now.
In any case, I'm glad you'll write up the results, that'll for sure be interesting!
Good ideas, thank you. Manifold is adding features faster than I can play with them - limit orders were added while I was researching this post - but when I'm back from holiday next week I look forward to trying them out.